问题：印度可以取代中国世界制造中心的地位吗？
美国网友马修•哈泽尔的回答
India's population is roughly the same as that of China. The two countries are close neighbors. One might say that if any country can defeat China and become the world's leading manufacturer and exporter, it is India.
印度的人口与中国大致相同，两国是近邻，有人可能会说，如果有哪个国家能够战胜中国，成为世界领先的制造商和出口国，那就是印度。
Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the case. The markets of China and India are very different, and New Delhi still has a long way to go in building a more important infrastructure network, such as good roads, bridges, railways and reliable energy sources, including the development of new power plants and designated factory and warehouse sites.
但遗憾的是，情况似乎并非如此。中国和印度的市场截然不同，而新德里在建设更重要的基础设施网络方面还有很长的路要走，比如良好的道路、桥梁、铁路，以及可靠的能源来源，包括开发新的发电厂，以及指定的工厂和仓库场地。
Widespread corruption in India and at all levels of government is chilling, the economic system is highly bureaucratic, and local officials are often accused of demanding bribes to approve company registrations and building permits.
印度与各级政府普遍存在的腐败现象令人心寒，经济体系高度官僚化，地方官员经常被指控要求行贿，以批准公司注册和建筑许可。
I also met some kind people who visited India and hoped to do business there, but were deeply disappointed when they left. They explained that India could not replicate China's success story in the short term.
我也遇到过一些善良的人，他们访问印度，希望在那里做生意，可离开时却深感失望，他们解释说，印度短期内根本无法复制中国的成功故事。
A friend once complained to me about the traffic situation in major cities in India. According to his experience of traveling around the world, the traffic jam in India is the worst in the world. Poor traffic conditions, crowded buses and other forms of public transport do cause many delays for local residents and business visitors to attend face-to-face meetings.
一位朋友曾经向我抱怨印度主要城市的交通情况，根据他的环球旅行经历，印度的交通堵塞是世界上最严重的。糟糕的交通状况、拥挤的公交车和其他形式的公共交通确实导致当地居民和商务访客在参加面对面的会议时出现许多延误。
But how to solve the traffic problem in India? The authorities never seem to think seriously. There is no answer except to build more roads and build new satellite cities to alleviate urban overcrowding.
但如何解决印度的交通问题呢？当局似乎从来没有认真思考过，除了修建更多道路，以及建立新的卫星城以缓解城市过度拥挤之外，没有其他的答案。
However, this will take years or even decades to solve, and the lack of infrastructure will delay India's efforts to promote domestic manufacturing for a long time.
然而，这需要数年甚至数十年才能解决，基础设施不足将在很长一段时间内推迟印度推动国内制造业的努力。
New Delhi is not reliable in supporting economic growth policies. At present, Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi supports the promotion of the "made in India" movement to encourage more localization of Indian industry, but the "made in India" strategy is not perfect. Compared with foreign-funded enterprises seeking to expand in India, New Delhi prefers Indian local enterprises and has a strong tendency of exclusion.
新德里在支持经济增长政策方面并不可靠，目前，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）支持推动“印度制造”运动，以鼓励印度工业的更多本地化，但“印度制造”战略并非完美无缺，与寻求在印度扩张的外资企业相比，新德里更青睐印度本土企业，有较强的排外倾向。
The Indian government has done little to weaken the power of trade unions in the country. Factory owners have no choice but to hire trade union workers. Many of them do not work hard and are not productive. Many local trade union presidents are only concerned with collecting dues from their members and wages from factory owners.
印度政府在削弱该国工会权力方面几乎没有作为，工厂主除了雇佣工会工人之外别无选择，他们中的许多人工作不努力，也没有生产力，许多当地工会会长只关心从他们的会员那里收取会费和从工厂老板那里收取工资。
India is a multi-party democracy, which means that today's Government may be banned or dissolved after tomorrow's election. Modi is widely popular among Indians with his economic policy of supporting growth, but his treatment of coronavirus has been questioned. India seems to have the largest number of confirmed cases outside the United States.
印度是一个多党民主国家，这意味着今天的政府可能在明天的选举后被取缔或解散，莫迪以其支持增长的经济政策在印度人中广受欢迎，但他对冠状病毒的处理方式受到了质疑，印度似乎成为除美国之外确诊人数最多的国家。
Of course, India has many fundamental problems that prevent it from becoming the factory of the world:
当然，印度还有许多根本性的问题阻碍它成为世界工厂：
1. Cultural bias: there is cultural bias against industry and industrialists. In the heyday of the industrial revolution, the country was ruled by the East India Company, and people were ruthlessly exploited and abused. Many Indians could not get rid of this trauma and did not take a positive attitude towards work. They respected farmers and knowledge workers far more than factory owners and workers.
1.文化偏见：对行业和实业家存在文化偏见。在工业革命的鼎盛时期，该国由东印度公司统治，人们被无情地剥削和虐待，许多印度人无法摆脱这种创伤，也没有以积极的态度看待工作，对农民和知识工人的尊重远远超过工厂主及工人。
Therefore, due to this deep-rooted cultural prejudice, India has shifted from agriculture to services rather than industry. Most Indians believe that farm work is sacred to some extent, office work is sacred, but factory work is dirty.
因此，由于这种根深蒂固的文化偏见，印度从农业转向了服务业而非工业。大多数印度人认为农场工作在某种程度上是神圣的，办公室工作是神圣的，但工厂工作却是肮脏的。
2. Engineering Education: the level of Engineering Education in India is far lower than that in the four industrialized countries - Germany, Japan, China and the United States. If we don't want to work in low-cost assembly line factories, the quality of engineering labor must be greatly improved.
2.工程教育：印度工程教育的水平远远低于四大工业化国家——德国、日本、中国和美国。如果我们不想从事廉价低端的流水线工厂工作，工程劳动力的质量必须大幅提高。
3. Environmental protection: in India, if a large company has an impact on the environment, everything will become a mess. Although I fully support environmental protection, what annoys me is this double standard. Farmers can pollute the environment at will (they use free motors to deplete the groundwater level and drain excess fertilizer from the water system), but there are various environmental restrictions and penalties for a large factory.
3.环境保护：在印度，如果一家大公司对环境造成了影响，一切都会变得一团糟。虽然我完全支持环保，但让我恼火的是这种双重标准。农民可以随便污染环境（他们用免费的电动机耗尽地下水位，并排放水系统中多余的肥料），但对于一家大型工厂来说，存在着各种各样的环保限制和惩戒。
4. Land law: because of the existence of land law, it is difficult for investors to obtain a large area of land to build factories. In India, the occupation of agricultural land is not allowed. In the past 20 years, less than 1% of India's farmland has been converted to industrial land. Even so, many farmers have fought fiercely.
4.土地法：因为土地法的存在，投资商很难获得大片土地来建造工厂。在印度，占用农业用地是不被允许的，在过去20年里，印度只有不到1%的农田被转为工业用地，即使如此，许多农民也因此大动干戈。
Therefore, in the foreseeable future, India's road to surpass China in manufacturing seems very bumpy.
因此，在可预见的未来，印度在制造业领域超越中国的道路似乎非常坎坷。
印度网友托马斯•帕肯的回答
India has the potential to replace China as the world's industrial center. This may be incredible for most people, but it can happen. This requires the sustained support of policymakers in India and Western countries. Let me give an example.
印度有潜力取代中国成为世界工业中心。这对大多数人来说可能难以置信，但这是可能发生的。这需要印度和西方国家的政策制定者的持续支持，让我举个例子。
Jamnagar refinery on the west coast of India is one of the largest integrated refineries in the world. In order to reduce logistics costs, the refinery plans to become a coastal based refinery with geographical advantages due to its proximity to the Persian Gulf, which has raw crude oil to meet the needs of the world.
印度西海岸的Jamnagar炼油厂是世界上最大的综合炼油厂之一。为了降低物流成本，该炼油厂计划成为一家以海岸为基础的炼油厂，由于靠近波斯湾而具有地理优势，波斯湾拥有原料原油，旨在满足全世界的需求。
Therefore, such projects can only be realized in China, where some rich western countries or countries support large-scale projects. A Chinese refinery transports Gulf crude oil to China through the Malacca bottleneck Strait. Its voyage is almost eight times the sea distance, and its economy cannot be as high as that of Jamnagar refinery.
因此，只有在一些财力雄厚的西方国家或国家支持大型项目的中国才能实现此类项目，中国的一家炼油厂通过马六甲瓶颈海峡将海湾原油运往中国，其航程几乎是海上距离的8倍，其经济性不可能像贾姆纳加尔炼油厂那样高。
Therefore, reliance, the owner of Jamnagar refinery, can easily sell refined oil competitively in the global market, do not rely on India's domestic market and earn valuable foreign exchange. The expansion is making Jamnagar the largest oil refining center in the world.
因此，Jamnagar炼油厂所有者Reliance可以轻松地在全球市场上竞争性地销售成品油，不依赖印度国内市场，并赚取宝贵的外汇，扩建正使贾姆纳加尔成为世界上最大的炼油中心。
印度港口But this advantage alone is far from enough. Indian industry is facing a series of problems to compete with China.
但仅有这一项优势是远远不够的，印度工业为与中国竞争而面临着一系列问题。
-The cost of industrial power is high. In most states, agricultural electricity is either free or subsidized for political reasons, because farmers are the largest source of election voting, which makes the cost of electricity for commercial and industrial units very high, because it needs to cross subsidize agricultural electricity. Similarly, in summer, when the power demand is very high, the power failure rate in the industrial park is the highest, forcing all industries to buy diesel generator sets as standby, which makes the industrial cost extremely high.
-工业用电成本高。在大多数州，由于政治原因，农业用电要么免费，要么补贴，因为农民是最大的竞选投票来源，这使得商业、工业单位的用电成本很高，因为它需要交叉补贴农业用电。同样在夏季，当电力需求很高时，工业园区内的停电率最高，迫使各行业购买柴油发电机组作为备用，这使得工业成本极高。
-Logistics costs in India are high. The punctuality of railway freight is uncertain, and most lines are crowded. As a result, the proportion of rail freight in total freight has been declining over the past few decades, from 85% in 1951 to 33% in 2015. Expensive road freight increased from 15% in 1951 to 58% in 2015, which proves the lack of priority to economize freight.
-印度的物流成本很高。铁路货运的准时性是不确定的，大多数线路都拥挤不堪。因此，在过去几十年中，铁路货运占总货运的比例正在下降，从1951年的85%下降到2015年的33%。而昂贵的公路货运从1951年的15%增加到2015年的58%，这证明了缺乏使货运经济化的优先考虑。
-Waterway is the cheapest mode of transportation, but it has not been developed in India for 70 years, while waterway is widely used in China. On November 12, 2018, modi and Nitin Gakari opened the first waterway between haldiya / Calcutta and Varanasi and carried out a lot of publicity. Expensive cranes were imported from Germany, but the waterway has not been fully utilized since the first shipment was received. Nitin Gakari promised to develop waterways, and he also promised to provide marine aircraft services and manufacturing, but there has been no progress.
-水路是最便宜的运输方式，但印度70年来没有开发，而中国则广泛使用水路。2018年11月12日，莫迪和尼廷·加卡里在哈尔迪亚/加尔各答和瓦拉纳西之间开辟了第一条水道，并进行了大量宣传。从德国进口了昂贵的起重机，但自收到第一批货物以来，这条水路并没有被充分利用。尼廷·加卡里承诺开发水道，他还承诺提供海上飞机服务和制造，但这些都没有取得任何进展。
-China's industry is mainly distributed along the southeast coast, which reduces transportation costs. Based on this, Nitin Gakari plans to build a new special economic zone along the new highway, which may not be as successful as the coastal special economic zone.
-中国的工业主要分布在东南沿海，这降低了运输成本。以此为蓝本，尼廷·加卡里计划沿着新的高速公路建设新的经济特区，可能没有沿海经济特区那么成功。
-China has given high incentives and subsidies to exporters, which makes European and American countries clamor to file a lawsuit with WTO rules.
-中国对出口商给予了很高的激励和补贴，这让欧美国家拿着WTO规则叫嚣着提起诉讼。
-India's tax laws are clumsy and different states have different tax rates. Although the unified GTS rules have solved this problem, the GST process is still chaotic and may take years to stabilize.
-印度的税法很笨拙，不同的州有不同的税率，虽然统一的GTS规则已经解决了这一问题，但GST流程仍然混乱，可能需要数年时间才能稳定下来。
Recently, the Indian government has taken some measures to reduce the impact of Chinese imports:
最近，印度政府采取了一些措施，以减少中国进口的冲击：
- the government amended the Customs Law, allowing KYC and users to follow up to prevent frequent abuse of this input route to dump goods in India, thereby receiving up to 5000 rupees from abroad by courier. Alipay e-commerce websites like China did so.
-政府修改了海关法，允许KYC和用户跟踪，以防止频繁滥用这条输入路线在印度倾销商品，从而通过快递从国外接收高达5000卢比的礼品，支付宝等中国电子商务网站就是这样做的。
-The Noida Samsung mobile Factory Co chaired by Prime Minister modi and the president of South Korea is the largest mobile factory in the world. Since 2014, there have been two more mobile manufacturers, reaching more than 250, creating huge employment opportunities, but they are still mainly engaged in low-end parts assembly.
-由莫迪总理和韩国总统共同主持的诺伊达三星移动工厂是世界上最大的移动工厂，2014年以来，移动制造厂增加了2家，达到250多家，创造了巨大的就业机会，但它们仍主要进行低端的零部件组装。
三星工厂-Recently, a tax increase of up to 200% has been implemented on imported toys. Importers from China will protest like the left-wing media, which will help to establish toy factories and create jobs.
-最近对进口玩具实施了高达200%的增税，来自中国的进口商将像左翼媒体一样抗议，这将有助于建立玩具工厂和创造就业机会。
-India refused to join the RCEP negotiations at the last minute only because the free trade agreement organization believed that China would only increase the trade deficit between India and India. China is crying out for India to join in the name of globalization.
-印度拒绝在最后一刻加入RCEP谈判，只是因为自由贸易协定组织认为中国只会增加印度与印度的贸易逆差，中国正以全球化的名义大声疾呼印度加入。
-In 2019, with the increase of labor costs in China, India reduced the corporate tax to the lowest level in the Asia Pacific region to encourage enterprises to transfer from China to India.
-2019年，随着中国劳动力成本的增加，印度将公司税降至亚太地区最低水平，以鼓励企业从中国转移到印度。
-India recently enacted a law banning Indian companies from land neighbors from obtaining approval for foreign direct investment in the automotive industry in order to prevent China and Hong Kong from buying shares in Indian companies, such as paytm, byjua, Oyo, swiggy, bigb basket and makmytype. Politician Rahul Gandhi once said that paytm was "paid to modi", but it was actually "paid to China". Due to the cessation of currency use, paytm's market value has increased many times, which benefits Chinese investors.
-印度最近颁布了一项法律，禁止来自陆地邻国的印度公司获得汽车业外国直接投资批准，这是为了防止中国和香港在印度公司购买股份，比如PayTM、ByJua、奥约、Swiggy、BigB篮和MakMyType等。政治家拉胡尔·甘地曾说PayTM是“向莫迪支付”，但实际上是“支付给中国”。由于停止使用货币，PayTM的市值增加了很多倍，这使中国投资者受益。
-After the coronavirus pandemic, the Indian government called on 1000 multinational companies to transfer manufacturing from China to India. Some chief ministers, such as up and Gujarat, have launched a plan with MSME minister Nitin Gakari. The COVID-19 pandemic is becoming an excellent opportunity to implement "made in India" and "industrial 4".
-冠状病毒大流行后，印度政府呼吁1000家跨国公司将制造业从中国转移到印度。一些首席部长，如UP和古吉拉特邦，已经与MSME部长尼廷·加卡里一起启动了一项计划。新冠病毒大流行正成为实施“印度制造”和“工业4.0”的绝佳机会。