韩国现在已经难言自主,逐渐脱离了均衡的外交路线,不顾自身利益向美日投怀送抱,迎合其亚太战略,破例军援乌克兰,粗暴介入台湾问题,将自己变成“威慑”中俄的前沿阵地。可以说尹锡悦政府满足了美日强硬派想要的一切,韩国正沦为一个没有控制力、参与权、自主性的国家。

Recently, there has been a significant diplomatic incident in Asia, which was the visit of South Korean President Yoon Seok hye to Japan. Of course, there is no problem with the visit of the South Korean President to Japan, as Japan and South Korea are both important leading countries in Asia. However, during this visit, the signal sent by the South Korean political community to the outside world was not ordinary, as it seems that South Korea is very eager to repair its relationship with Japan. Yin Xiyue also made a big bow to the Japanese flag.

何以如此?我们还要从最近亚洲发生的一个不大不小的外交事件说起,就是韩国总统尹锡悦访问日本了。韩国总统访问日本当然没什么问题,毕竟日韩在亚洲都属于相当重要的头部国家。但这次访问期间,韩国政坛向外界发出的信号却不一般,貌似韩国非常想要修复与日本的关系。尹锡悦还对日本国旗来了个大鞠躬。



In fact, not long after Yin Xiyue took office last year, he proposed to solve the historical legacy issues with Japan and repair relations with Japan, but it remained only in words. By early March of this year, Yin Xiyue was no longer just talking nonsense.

其实去年在尹锡悦上台没多久,就提出了要解决与日本的历史遗留问题,修复与日本的关系,但是还是只停留在口头上,而到了今年的三月初,尹锡悦就已经不是在简单的打嘴炮了。

He created a "Compensation Plan for Victims of Forced Labor Recruitment in World War II" and said that it will no longer be about the Japanese. Our South Korean chaebol will compensate, which roughly means that if Chen Shui bian cannot pay the money he embezzled, Ma Ying jeou will pay for him. At present, the effect is very good. Japan has lifted the restrictions on semiconductor materials in South Korea two days ago and promised that the leaders of the two countries can engage in shuttle diplomacy in the future, that is, if there is communication, you can respect me on your side and I can respect you on my side.

他搞了个《二战强征劳工受害者代偿方案》,说以后就不关日本人的事儿了,我们韩国财阀来赔,大概的意思就是陈水扁贪污的钱交不出来,那马英九替他付了。目前来看效果很好,日本在前两天已经解除了对韩国半导体材料的限制,也承诺未来两国领导人可以进行穿梭外交,就是有来有往,你这边敬我一下,我这边敬你一下,穿穿梭梭。

In addition to being non Japanese, Yin Xiyue finally went to the United States to meet Biden in April. It can be said that Yin Xiyue's restoration of Korean Japanese relations is just a prelude to meeting the suzerain.

除了跟日本你侬我侬之外,4月份尹锡悦终于到美国朝见拜登了,可以说,尹锡悦修复韩日关系,不过是为拜见宗主国打个前站罢了。



How long can the The Honeymooners period after the repair of the ROK Japan relationship last? Will it break? Then we have to talk about the events between the two countries from a historical perspective.

那么韩日关系修复之后的蜜月期可以持续多久呢?会不会破裂呢?那就不得不从历史上聊聊两国那点事儿了。

We have always had the illusion that South Korea is on land and Japan is at sea, so the two countries should be a bit distant. In fact, the distance between Japan and South Korea is very close. South Korea is only about 50 kilometers away from Japan's Tsushima Island, while the mainland is also 126 kilometers away from Taiwan Island.

我们之前一直有一个错觉,觉得韩国在陆地上,日本在海上,所以两国应该有点距离,其实日韩之间的距离很近,韩国离日本的对马岛只有50公里左右,而大陆离台湾岛最近也有126公里。



After the Meiji Restoration, Japan's national strength increased and began to propose the slogan of leaving Asia and entering Europe, advocating for joint progress and retreat with Western civilization, which is to engage in colonial expansion together. So Korea was unlucky. Japan drove the Qing Dynasty and Tsarist Russia out of the Korean Peninsula through the Sino Japanese War of 1894-1895 and the Russo Japanese War. In 1910, Japan and the Lee Dynasty of Korea signed the Merger Treaty, which completely annexed Korea. Until the end of World War II, Japan lost the war.

日本在明治维新后国力增强,开始提出脱亚入欧的口号,主张和西洋文明共进退,就是一起搞殖民扩张。所以朝鲜就倒了大霉,日本相继通过甲午中日战争和日俄战争先后把清朝和沙俄赶出了朝鲜半岛,1910年,日本与朝鲜李氏王朝签订了《日朝合并条约》彻底吞并了朝鲜,直到二战结束,日本战败。

After the end of World War II, where corpses were piled up and blood flowed, Lee Seung wan was summoned to Japan by the Allied Japanese occupation commander in chief, MacArthur, in his second month as President of South Korea. On his first day in Japan, Lee Seung wan issued a statement stating that South Korea was willing to forget the past and strive to establish new relations with Japan.

在尸积如山,血流成河的二战结束后,李承晚当上韩国总统的第二个月,就被盟国日占总司令麦克阿瑟给喊到了日本,李承晚在到日本后的第一天就发表声明说,韩国愿意忘记过去,努力同日本建立新的关系。

In February 1950, at the invitation of MacArthur, Rhee visited Japan again. Before returning to China, Rhee said that he learned that Japanese leaders headed by Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida sincerely looked forward to friendship between the two countries. I hope that South Korea and Japan will settle the past on the basis of common ideals and mutual understanding, and deal with various problems between the two countries in a spirit of tolerance on the basis of full understanding of the dangers approaching the two peoples.

1950年2月,应麦克阿瑟的邀请,李承晚再次访日,回国之前李承晚表示,了解到以吉田茂首相为首的日方领导,真心的期盼两国间的友好,我期盼韩日两国在共同的理想与互相了解的基础上清算过去,在充分认识到正在逼近两国人民身边的危险的基础上,基于宽容的精神处理两国之间存在的各项问题。

However, does Li Chengwan really think so? In fact, Li Chengwan had clearly stated that the normalization of diplomatic relations may be beneficial to Japan, but unfavorable to South Korea. At the beginning of South Korea's founding, Li Chengwan's positive attitude towards promoting the development of South Korea Japan relations was more due to the United States' desire for improved relations between South Korea and Japan.

然而李承晚本人是不是真的这么想的?其实李承晚曾经明确的表示过,邦交正常化可能对日本有利,但是对韩国不利,李承晚在韩国建国之初表现得积极推动韩日关系发展的态度更多的是因为美国希望韩日改善关系。

So, the good or bad relationship between Japan and South Korea stems from the attitude of the United States. And this kind of friendship did not last long. At the end of 1953, the Korean War was almost over, and its impact on Japan and South Korea was significant. The United States has begun to change its mindset, believing that it needs to change its previous military style aid policy and not focus all the pressure on the United States itself. Simply put, the United States is going to let go, let Japan and South Korea rely on themselves. As a result, the recent progress in Japan South Korea relations has led to problems again.

所以,日韩关系的好与不好就是出于美国的态度。而这种友好并没有能持续太久,1953年年底朝鲜战争差不多结束了,这场战争对日韩的影响是很大的。美国开始转变思想,认为需要改变原本先军式的援助政策,不应该把压力都集中在美国自己身上。简单说就是美国要放手了,日韩你们靠自己吧。如此一来刚刚有所进展的日韩关系就又出现了问题。

Japanese diplomat Kubota proposed during a meeting on the normalization of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Japan that South Korea should recognize the private property of Japanese people in South Korea during World War II. In other words, not only should Japan no longer lose money, but South Korea should also look backwards because this part of property has already been confiscated and confiscated by South Korea with the support of the United States. This directly led to the suspension of the Japan South Korea meeting, and South Korea also engaged in a dispute with Japan in the fishing industry, arresting a large number of Japanese fishermen who crossed the fishing line.

日本的外交官久保田就在一次韩日邦交正常化的会议中提出,韩国应当承认二战在韩国日本人的私有财产。换句话说日本不但不应该再赔钱了,韩国还应该倒找,因为这部分财产已经在美国的支持下被韩国没收充公了。这就直接导致了日韩会议的中止,韩国这边也在渔业上跟日本闹幺蛾子,逮捕了一大批越线捕捞的日本渔民。

In 1954, the one-sided Shigeru Yoshida Cabinet stepped down and Hatoyama Ichiro came to power, but he did not follow the one-sided line. The one-sided meaning is to only recognize the United States as the father, and no one else can handle it. At that time, Japan was eager to join the United Nations, but the Soviet Union repeatedly voted against it, and the United States played a close match in North Korea and China, which made Hatoyama Ichiro want to improve his relations with socialist countries such as the Soviet Union and China.

1954年,选择一边倒的吉田茂内阁下台,鸠山一郎上台,却没有执行一边倒的路线。一边倒的意思就是只认美国这个爸爸,其他谁也不好使,当时日本急于加入联合国,但苏联次次投反对票,加上美国在朝鲜和中国打了个旗鼓相当,这让鸠山一郎想要改进与苏联和中国等社会主义国家的关系。

After Hatoyama Ichiro took office, he announced that my mission as a politician was to negotiate and modify the constitution with Japan and the Soviet Union, Especially regarding the resumption of diplomatic relations between Japan and the Soviet Union, a special envoy was soon dispatched to visit Pyongyang. This makes South Korea angry. South Korea claims that unless there is another anti communist cabinet outside of the Hatoyama Ichiro government, there is no hope of normalizing relations between Japan and South Korea.

鸠山一郎上台后就宣布我作为政治家的使命就在于日苏交涉和修改宪法,特别是恢复日苏邦交问题,更是不久派特使访问平壤。这让韩国气不打一处来。韩国称,除非出现鸠山一郎政府之外的另一个反共内阁,否则日韩关系就没有实现正常化的希望。

In August 1955, South Korea announced to the public that its relations with Japan had reached a critical point of explosion. Subsequently, South Korea took a series of retaliatory measures against Japan, such as prohibiting overseas Chinese from visiting South Korea, prohibiting Korean tourists from Japan, prohibiting trade between Japan and South Korea, and even firing guns on Japan's cross-border fishing vessels. Japan is not used to it either. It launched a North Korean people's movement in Japan, sending some North Koreans in Japan with their belongings to North Korea.

1955年8月,韩国就对外宣布,日韩关系已经到了爆炸的临界点,随后韩国对日本采取了一系列的报复措施,比如禁止在日本侨胞访问韩国,禁止韩国人到日本旅游,禁止日韩贸易,甚至还对日本的跨界渔船开了炮。日本也没惯着,搞了个在日朝鲜人北送运动,把一些在日本的朝鲜人连人带家产送去了朝鲜。

At this time, North Korea and South Korea could not be compared to today. North Korea's economy was even stronger than South Korea, and the national image at that time was very good. This is making the face saving Koreans very embarrassed. The more South Korea is unable to step down, the happier socialist countries such as the Soviet Union become, which has caused Japan to have a strong impression on the Soviet Union's big brother. Finally, in October 1956, Ichiro Hatoyama fulfilled his promise and signed the Japanese Soviet Joint Declaration with the Soviet Union, normalizing the relationship between the two countries.

这时候的朝鲜和韩国不可同今日而语,朝鲜经济甚至强于韩国,而且那个时候的国家形象很不错。这可是把非常要面子的韩国人搞得非常下不来台。韩国越是下不来台,苏联等一众社会主义国家就越开心,这让日本在苏联老大哥那狠狠地刷了一波好感。终于在1956年10月,鸠山一郎完成了他的承诺,与苏联签订了日苏共同宣言,两国关系实现了正常化。

This angered the United States and South Korea. Hatoyama Ichiro was very young and announced his resignation on the third day after returning home. When he took office, he had no plans to retire well. Hatoyama Ichiro's mission has been completed, but Japan still needs to consider repairing its relationship with the United States, after all, that's his father.

这让美韩震怒,鸠山一郎就很刚,从苏联回国后的第三天就宣布下台,人家上台那会儿就没打算好好退休。鸠山一郎的任务完成了,可日本还要琢磨修复与美国的关系,毕竟那是爸爸呀。

In 1956, Tanzan Ishibashi came to power, but he had a short life. He served as an official for one year, and then Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi came to power. Nobusuke Kishi Nobusuke Kishi has taken an active policy towards South Korea, released many South Korean fishermen from cross-border fishing, and withdrawn Kubotian's speech, which has opened the Japan South Korea talks again. Why is Shinjitsu so anxious? Because the new Prime Minister of Japan wants to be stable, he must go to the United States to be crowned. Nobusuke Kishi plans to go to the United States to pay a pilgrimage in June 1957, so before that, he must symbolically improve relations with South Korea. After all, this is what the United States wants. When it comes to this, we may all know that, which corresponds to what Yin Xiyue has done today.

1956年石桥湛山上台,但是很短命,就当了一年,然后安倍的外公岸信介就上台了。岸信介采取了积极的对韩政策,释放了不少韩国跨界捕捞的渔民,又撤回了久保田发言,这让日韩会谈又得以再次开启,为啥岸信介这么着急?因为新任日本首相想要坐稳,必须去美国受封,岸信介打算1957年6月去美国朝拜,所以在这之前必须象征性地和韩国搞好关系,毕竟这是美国想要的,说到这可能大家都知道了,也对应上了尹锡悦今日的所作所为。

岸信介

Yin Xiyue recklessly provoked China's emotions towards the outside world, flattered Japan, allowed US nuclear submarines to dock in South Korea, and spoke out on the Taiwan issue. Not only did outsiders find it strange, but South Korea was also very angry internally. In order to please the United States, Yin Xiyue did some things that should not be done.

尹锡悦对外莽撞挑拨中国情绪,献媚日本,允许美国核潜艇停靠韩国,在台湾问题上大放厥词,不仅外人觉得奇怪,韩国内部也是非常愤怒,为了取悦美国,尹锡悦确实做了一些不该做的事。

Yin Xiyue is not considered a qualified politician, as a qualified prosecutor, this is not appropriate. Apart from his beautiful wife, he is not afraid of anything in South Korea. However, due to his lack of political knowledge, he always simplifies and childish international politics, and even uses Cold War thinking to cling to the United States' thighs and seek unprincipled reconciliation from Japan. This has led to numerous policy mistakes in South Korea and increasing opposition within the country. If adjustments are not made, the ultimate damage can only be to South Korea's own national interests.

尹锡悦不算是个合格的政治家,作为一个合格的检察官,这是不应该的。除了那个漂亮老婆,他在韩国天不怕地不怕,可由于缺乏政治常识,总是把国际政治简单化、幼稚化,甚至动用冷战思维,紧抱美国大腿,向日本寻求毫无原则的和解,这让韩国的政策错误百出,国内的反对声浪也越来越大。如果不进行调整,最终损害的只能是韩国自身的国家利益。